China’s 2024 Five Strategic Adjustments (From Lei’s translation) #china #ChinaBi

China’s 2024 Five Strategic Adjustments
(From Lei’s translation) #china #ChinaBiz
These adjustments are consistent with the messaging out of the CCP after Xi’s visit to the US this fall. Lei believes that this is positioning for foreign consumption but that the world has no trust in Chinese words. That does not mean that the CCP will not in fact pursue some or all of these policy changes.

THE FIVE ADJUSTMENTS
1. “Smiling pandas will replace wolf warriors. China’s diplomacy will adopt a low profile and actively seek to improve relations relying on diplomats who understand the west, because if the west withdraws from china its economy will be crushed.”

2. “Ending the belt and road initiative – it’s at end of life. The 1T dollars we have invested cannot be repaid. With about 80% of these investments becoming bad debt. With china facing a shortage of funds, china cannot continue this initiative.”

3. “Activating de-escalating geo-political hot spots and conflict zones. There has never been a plan to use force against Taiwan. In the next few years we can expect tensions to ease in our conflict zones, although unforeseen incidents may occur a large scale conflict is unlikely.”

4. “Aggressively attracting foreign investment and opening up china. China will also provide a one sided visa waiver for business travelers coming to china. China has realized that the world can exist without china but china cannot exist without the world. The model of an economic self reliance program has been abandoned. China’s economic model relies on both imports and exports, with the significant decline in exports affecting China.”

5. “Reducing the use of economic measures for achieving diplomatic goals. The country will find it increasingly difficult to use economic measures to achieve objectives. China requires import of resources and export of consumer good to prosper.”

CLOSING
China is entering a strategic contraction phase, returning to Deng’s hide one’s strength and bide one’s time (this is std chinese military strategy). China’s GDP will drop to 50% of the US. And the severe domestic issues and crises will require full attention of the government. During this time the tech gap will widen. Some speculate that china amid internal difficulties may gamble with external conflict. But these people do not know the opinion of the leadership.

MORE…
Feedback to CCP from Provincial Leaders Last Fall:
1. Stop wolf warrior diplomacy and restore relations with the west. and stop the exodus of foreign companies
2. Relieve the restrictions on real estate and let local governments control their own strategy and marketing.
3. Stop the discriminating policies that target private companies and give them the same status as state enterprises to revive economic momentum.

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Xi’s Health
Xi’s dramatic weight loss in so few weeks is indicative of some health problem but the rumor that it’s pancreatic cancer is unsubstantiated.