If I may ask one more question? Ok. Let’s assume the data is not improved; it’s

If I may ask one more question?
Ok. Let’s assume the data is not improved; it’s just been redesigned to look good. And let’s assume that the problem of data-lag confronting central banks hasn’t improved.
But (and we’re both old enough to remember this), in previous contractions, wasn’t there was less awareness and concern spread across the economy, and more optimism?
So isn’t there a decrease in the ‘animal spirits’ that cause rapid shifts that cause shocks that spiral?
I was conscious of the 80s banking crisis, the early 90s recession, of the 2001 obvious problem of malinvestment, and of the 2008 obvious debt problems. All of these events were roughly predictable and obvious, but optimism and wishful thinking seemed to persist in the broader population. I don’t really see that right now.
We know that in general the more aware people are of a risk the more likely they are to counter it assuming the incentive isn’t overwhelming – this is one of the reasons some predictions don’t manifest.
So do you observe this same behavior or, at least from your vantage point, do you see ‘same old, same old once again’?

Reply addressees: @VelenskiMeir


Source date (UTC): 2023-08-01 19:16:27 UTC

Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1686455874347221002

Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1686441575021207552

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