OCCAM’S RAZOR: GROWNUP ANALYSIS OF PRIGOZHIN EVENT Possible theory on what went

OCCAM’S RAZOR: GROWNUP ANALYSIS OF PRIGOZHIN EVENT

Possible theory on what went down.
by damianoram @damianoram

– Prigozin didn’t have any political ambitions.
– He just wanted out, because Backmut was a useless meat grinder.
– In Africa he had a much better business with much less risk.
– The Russian Ministry of Defence would not let them go and strike at them if they tried.
– The only way out for him was to get rid of Shoigu and make a show of strength.

So…
– He stockpiled ammunition pretending the MoD wasn’t sending any.
– Did the most outrageous thing possible clarifying that he wasn’t against Putin but against Shoigu (giving Putin an out in the negotiation)

And….
– FSB and others in power potentially stand to gain by weakening Putin but not by having Prigozin as a new leader. – FSB didn’t oppose him during the “coup” because they knew that what he wanted was just to negotiate amnesty and exhile for himself and his people.
– Some of business in Africa may be related to the same people who didn’t oppose him during the “coup”. This increases the odds that it may be in someone’s interest for him to get back to it. (This is speculation)

Possible next steps:
– The people who are ready to make a move on Putin are now waiting for the fallout from the “coup attempt” to see a real opening.
– They need to re-open to the west for business to resume.
– The narrative of the war being useless started by Prigozin will give them an excuse to retreat from Ukraine (this is me hoping)
– They are (hopefully) looking to talk to security services in the west so they can establish trust, clarify their objectives and have legitimacy

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CD: This is the most parsimonious pragmatic explanation that satisfies the incentives of all parties to act as they did. In other words, Occam’s Razor doesn’t get much sharper than this.