“Israel will attack Iran.”- @VelenskiMeir In response to accusations of ‘always

“Israel will attack Iran.”- @VelenskiMeir https://t.co/4G2114NFq7

In response to accusations of ‘always wrong’: That’s nonsense. The purpose of public intellectuals is to produce a field of framing and predictions from which we have the opportunity to prioritize our understanding and actions ourselves. I follow MV closely (he’s just getting started), and he is consistently correct about shifts in potential, and most importantly, he avoids clickbait and drama that distracts from the content.

In geostrategy, geopolitics, economics and finance, just as in the other sciences, we always and everywhere find a distribution of opinions that bias toward optimism, continuity, or pessimism. For most investors, pessimism (identifying potential risks) provides the most useful opinion and data with the broadest application.

Why? We all have specific knowledge (or should) about our particular investments, but broader influences effects and consequences tent to play out on general market conditions as well as particulars.

I’ve been in the prediction biz since the 80s, and in general, the contrarians (risk finders) will be right in the long run with timing the only difference between us. Whereas optimists can be right in the short term if you act quickly on an emerging opportunity. And in my lifetime of experience ‘continuity’ or cycle followers haven’t read Mandelbrot and don’t grasp that if it’s that regular then we tend to miss outliers (black swans).

In this case, Israel, the USA is withdrawing from policing the world and causing regions to take local responsibility for their security. Everyone in the middle east is deeply aware of this as well as china’s interest in replacing that influence, and iran’s ambitions to pursue empire given the opportunity.

Israel is facing demographic and strategic conflict. It is rather foolish of Israel to allow Iran nuclear weapons. And Israel is no longer bound by american limitations on doing so.

Furthermore, with the present internal conflict a war will unite the country the way wars always do, which is why states tend to use external forces to cause internal unity.

It’s not a question of Israel attacking Iran. It’s just a question of when. Because the worst thing for the region is an Iran with even worse ambitions than it’s had since the late seventies.

Cheers
Curt Doolittle
The Natural Law Institute